Gritty, Dissatisfied Optimism - 277

 The global air temperature, measured by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is rising nearly every year. This 2023 July and August global average temperatures set new records.

The consequence of this is a greater chance of forest fires. Unsurprisingly, Canadian Wildfires set new records. 

Increased ocean temperatures mean increased evaporation. Warmed air holds more water. More water in the atmosphere increases the chance of devastation by floods. The recent evidence of this is the floods in Pakistan and Libya.   

If we don't steel our nerves when we examine world weather events, it is easy to fall into one of two apposed psychological escapes: denialism or defeatism. Denialism is a great way to soothe a mind unable to deal with reality. You can do this by closing the blinds, setting the temperature at 70F, and turning on your favorite sitcom. Or you could sit meditatively and sing, "Don't Worry, be Happy." 

The young, whose skin is in the game, that is ALL their skin, do not fall for denialism. This commitment to scientific truths is evidenced by the strong-willed woman Greta Thunberg. Her Aspergers Syndrome and young age prevent her from falling into "Age induced diminished ability to critically assess reality," which afflicts some seniors. 

Doomsayers are having a field day, too. Admittedly, the evidence is grim if you focus only on what has happened. The mistake of alarmists is they believe we will fail to pull our collective craniums out of our collective anal orifices. Cynically, doomsayers, kill our will to act.  

Is there a rational hope? You bet there is. Reasonable hope rests on meaningful action. 

One measure is electric vehicles. Electric vehicle sales are rising and are expected to increase 35 percent this year over last. Electric vehicle adaptation is led by countries as diverse as Norway and China. In the USA, the electric vehicle supply chains are gearing up to support the transition. There is no better indicator of the focus on EVs than GM's Renaissance Center in Detroit. 

Solar, Wind, and other renewable energy production are rising. While China has built far too many coal-fired power plants, they have also put together a world-leading 400 percent increase in deployed renewable energy since 2015.

In the USA, spending on clean energy technology has doubled in the last four years. We have reduced emissions here in the USA by 18% since 2005.

Efforts to go green in the European Union have had a meaningful impact, with emissions steadily declining since 1979.

The best reason to be optimistic is the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA. Here is how the Rhodium Group summarizes the situation in their new "Clean Investment Monitor"*. "In our inaugural report, we find that in the past year, there was $213 billion in new clean investment across the economy—a 37% increase from the previous year and a 165% increase from five years ago. At this level, clean investment nationwide is larger than the annual GDP of 18 of the 50 US states. The most rapid investment growth has been in clean technology manufacturing—with annual investment growing 125% year-on-year to $39 billion—and particularly within electric vehicle and solar manufacturing. Investment in clean energy production and industrial decarbonization rose 15% year-on-year to $61 billion. And household and business retail investment in purchasing and installing clean technologies like heat pumps and zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) rose 32% year-on-year to $113 billion."

So, there is reason to be optimistic. No evidence supports denialism, so you can ditch any thoughts climate change isn't happening. 

And for those who are distressed, we can take heart in the fact that the world is slowly bending the arc of environmental justice toward sustainable life.

I do not support naive optimism. Instead, I prefer what the architect of the Paris Climate Accord, Christiana Figueres, promotes. She believes citizens of the world need to adopt what she calls a "stubborn optimism" — a dissatisfied, gritty, determined confidence that humanity can bring about needed change in the face of great challenges.

For those of you who want a proven climate organization headed by a proven leader, look no further than "Climate Reality" led by the stubborn optimist, and Nobel Award recipient,  Al Gore. He was one of the first non-scientists to understand climate change and has never stopped believing we can make a difference.

Condensed from these articles:

The Washington Post: Tired of feeling hopeless about climate change? Take a look at these charts.

The New York Times: Biden’s Climate Law is Reshaping Private Investment in the United States.

*THE Rhodium CLEAN INVESTMENT MONITOR (CIM) is a joint project of Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. The CIM tracks public and private investments in manufacturing and deployment of climate technologies in the United States. Through this data and analysis, the CIM provides insights into investment trends, the effects of federal and state policies, and on-the-ground progress in the US towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

The Rhodium Group is an excellent global investment banking company.