There are Experts and They Should be Referenced 204

Last week Charlie Supersynski wrote a climate denial LTE with no scientific evidence or reference. While I do not always include references, most of my last 200 columns have them and sometimes multiple references. I am not a scientist, but I am diligent about bringing experts to you.

There are unlimited topics to cover regarding climate change, but since there were errors in Mr. Supersynski’s LTE, I am compelled to revisit the science I brought to you four years ago.

Mr. Supersynski’s primary assertion is, “Increases in global temperature are followed by increases in CO2, not the opposite.”, which insinuates CO2 is not the driver of global warming.

Think about this statement. If it was true, then 99% of the 14,000 climate scientists and 100% of the world’s most respected science organizations would be lying to us. Do you think the smartest and most honest people, whose work is put under the microscope by their brilliant peers, are going to risk their reputation by attempting to misinform us?  

Lets start where Mr. Superynski is correct.  Scientists, when speaking about the ice-age cycles, the only period the earth heats significantly without the input of greenhouse gasses is the first 800 years of warming following an ice age.  Unfortunately, that is only 800 years of a 100,000-year cycle and today, we certainly are not coming out of an ice age. But, for those 800 years, Mr. Supersynski is correct.

Years ago, I probably saw the same video cherry picking this  800-year period and trying to make me think this observation disproved the climate science community. This deceptive video tries to convince us CO is not responsible for the earth’s current dramatic warming. Wow, one You-tube video invalidates 160 years of climate science! No, the video is baloney created to deceive us.

Scientists agree, orbital variations are the TRIGGER, starting the melt of the thick ice-age caps. These orbital changes identified by Charlie only get the warming started. The much larger increases in temps which allow earth to escape an ice age are totally dominated by greenhouse gasses and various feedback loops associated with it.  

Here I will run through the cycles: When the earth starts into an ice age, the changes in the earth’s tilt and orbital path are pulled into elliptical tracks rather than circular orbits reducing the amount of sunlight hitting the north pole. This starts the process of snow accumulation. This half of the Milankovitch cycle is about 50,000 years long. (The orbital cycles are named after the famous Serb scientist).  With less sunlight hitting the northern hemisphere and much more sunlight reflected, the northern oceans cool. Cool water holds more CO2 so there is less heat trapping CO2 in the air. As the northern hemisphere cools snow hangs around longer. Snow reflects light and the northern hemisphere cools even more.

There are other factors too like how many trees the earth is covered with, and how well phytoplankton are generating in the oceans. It is complex but the bottom line is the concentration of CO2 determines how warm the earth is and will be. Greenhouse gasses are the earth’s thermostat.   

Here is how the earth escapes an ice age. About 50,000 years later the tilt and orbit of the earth goes back to a circular path slowly exposing the Northern Hemisphere to more sun. This greater exposure to the sun explains the first 800 years of warming coming out of an ice age. This is the only time Charlie’s “temperature leads CO2” assertion is correct.  His analogy of a warming ocean to opening a can of warm soda is one scientists also use. The CO2 escapes over vast stretches of warming water. At this point, the earth’s temperature is primarily at the mercy of CO2 which is trapping more heat. At this point heating by orbital changes is dwarfed by carbon dioxide and methane. The land and water over the centuries, push more heat trapping CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. The duration of warming by greenhouse gasses is measured in thousands of years.

It is ludicrous to allege CO2 is not a greenhouse gas and not the earth’s thermostat. The science proving carbon dioxide is a powerful greenhouse gas was done in the 1860s by both Eunice Foote (USA) and John Tyndall (UK) and has never been disproven.

In brief review, what STARTS the earth emerging from an ice age is the earth’s orbital change but it is only a TRIGGER. It is a hair trigger taking only 800 years in a 100,000 year stretch of time to complete the Milankovitch Cycle. This 800-year trigger begins the CO2 escape from the oceans and land increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

To emphasize the critical nature of our situation let’s examine the concentration of CO2 today comparing it to ice age data. CO2 is measured in parts per million (ppm). The earth’s global average temperature correlates strongly with the CO2 ppm. The best and accurate measurement of the earth’s changing temps correlating to CO2 concentrations comes from the 1.8-mile-deep ice cores extracted from the Antarctic Ice Cap. The air bubbles in the cores document the CO2 concentrations and the corresponding temperature from the ice trapped air. Looking back 800,000 years these vary from roughly 200 ppm to 300 ppm. 200 ppm is an ice age. 300 is a pleasant climate. Note, this is only a 100ppm difference and it increases over 50,000 years then decreases over 50,000 years.

Today humans, by burning coal, oil, and gas, have added over 100 ppm more. We have exceeded 400ppm. We have done what the earth naturally does in 50,000 years in only 100 years.  Should we be surprised in the last 100 years the planet has warmed a whopping 1.9 degrees F with the rate increasing?  

We are God’s caretakers of the planet for only a few years. As adults we can make a difference in maybe 50 years. In this short time 1.9F does not seem like much of a rise.  But, if you look at it in geologic terms, this added 100 ppm is like you or I at a barbecue, throwing a gallon of gas on the coals to get things moving. “Are those burgers done yet Honey?”. “Oh yeah, Baby, they’re done! Bring out the ketchup, mustard and a little of that burn ointment.” The 1.9 degrees F rise is TEN TIMES faster than any other period identified by scientists. It is unquestionably driven by CO2 or as the scientists say, it is unequivocal.

I’ve seen a lot of deceptively convincing denier you-tube presentations. They plant doubt in my mind. But only for a minute. So why have I not taken the bait? Basically because of two things. First, I doubt the whole science world is wrong. To buy into these denial presentations a person would first have to believe the smartest people on the earth are uneducated or liars. Second, I travel listening to and meeting world renowned scientists. After their presentations I take the time to visit with them. If I have a question, I write to them. Often, they remember me and help with questions.

Years ago, when I saw the misleading you-tube presentation on temperature and CO2, I contacted Dr. Sarah Green. She is the soft spoken and humble Chemistry Interim Chair of the Michigan Tech Chemistry Department. She is a science heavyweight*. She referred me to John Cook who is an Assistant Professor of Climate Communication at George Mason University and is well known and respected in science circles.

I ended up going to Professor Cook’s science-based website called skeptical science. (www.skepticalscience.com). Here you can retrace my steps by going to the left-hand column titled “Most Used Climate Myths”.  There are ten myths displayed so go to the bottom of the first ten and select View all Arguments because “CO2 lags Temperature” is the 12^th of 198 climate myths. Click on #12 and you should bring up the “Basic” explanation.  There is plenty to read but start by scrolling down to the you-tube presentation with the sun pictured on it titled, “The Temp Leads Carbon- updated” Here Peter Sinclair goes into the basics of how deniers deceive us by cherry-picking.

The next video, the one on the very bottom, is from a course called Denial 101. The presenter is Dr. Sarah Green. One thing you will discover is there are lot of moving parts when an ice age ends. It is a fascinating explanation. Because I found the complete explanation complex, I had to literally watch it a dozen times taking notes to finally get it down. Stick with it, it is a big and interesting world.

Sarah also reveals to us more “Logical Fallacies”. By paying attention to these, we inoculate ourselves from being deceived by viral denial cons.

From a historic standpoint, the discussion of temp vs CO2 was put to bed 30 years ago in 1990 by Dr James Hansen then head of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies for NASA. This myth, like many others, slithers out of the grave even when buried under tons of peer-reviewed data. Because of this, these humorously called a Zombie myth. No matter how many nails scientists put in its coffin someone finds a way to dig it up, pry it open, and out crawls the Zombie.

List of Referenced Experts: Dr. Sarah Green, MTU: Dr John Cook, George Mason University, Peter Sinclair, B.F.A, founder of the Climate Crock Series.

Recommended free course: Denial 101. This is a gateway course to dozens of clear speaking scientists who help us avoid being conned. Apply via skepticalscience.com .

*Why reference an expert? Here is Dr Green’s National Academy of Science Bio:

“Dr. Sarah A. Green is Professor of Chemistry at Michigan Technological University. She holds a bachelor’s degree in chemistry from the University of Minnesota after which she spent a year as an intern at the French National Centre for Scientific Research researching novel solar cell materials. She earned her PhD in marine chemistry (1992) through the Joint Program in Oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (MIT/WHOI Joint Program). Returning to basic physical chemistry, she completed two years of postdoctoral training under Dr. Marye Anne Fox at the University of Texas, Austin. Dr. Green joined Michigan Tech University in 1994 and served as department chair from 2004 to 2013. Dr. Green’s research spans scales from molecular to global across a range of disciplines linked to chemistry. She has studied the chemistry of tobacco smoke, soil carbon in forests and rivers, copper-contaminated mine waste, and novel sensors. Regionally, her work centers on the Great Lakes including the impacts of invasive species and legacy mining wastes, as well as carbon cycling, remote sensing and the effects of climate change. She served as Director of KITES, a $4M program funded by the National Science Foundation to study coastal currents in Lake Superior. She has recently focused her energy on climate change communication and education. She has taught courses in chemistry, environmental chemistry, and green chemistry. Twelve graduate students have completed degrees under her supervision and she has served on over 50 graduate committees. At Michigan Tech, Dr. Green was a co-initiator of the Peace Corps Masters program in Science Education at Michigan Tech, and has led the Women in Science and Engineering group, directed the Earth, Planetary, and Space, Science Institute, and served as a founding member of the Great Lakes Research Center. She serves on the State of Michigan Green Chemistry Roundtable and on the governing board of the Council for Chemical Research, a national organization dedicated to enhancing collaboration among industrial, academic and government entities engaged in chemistry research.”