Climate Assessment

 Assessing the rapidly changing climate gives us a way to gauge where we are now, how quickly we must mitigate (prevent) more global warming, and how we need to adapt while we pursue mitigation. A situation report was given by three scientists of the American Association for the Advancement of Science for the AAAS Sci-line. What follows is a synopsis of the report.

Kathie Dello, the North Carolina State Climatologist gave us a climate situation report as follows: The five warmest years in US history have been since 2012. Daily temperature records are setting new highs twice as fast as low records. Wet areas are getting wetter and traditionally dry areas are now drier. Climate/weather disasters cost us 95 billion dollars in 2020 coming in the form of droughts, wild-fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and derechos. Derechos are rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms with accompanying strong straight-line winds. A new science called “Attribution Science” is helping us to tease out the role global warming has in these extreme weather events versus normal weather fluctuations. *

Chris Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University spoke about mitigation. Mitigation is what we must do to stop global warming. To stop warming we have two big challenges. First, we must cease, as soon as possible, burning fossil fuels. If we modernize our electric grid and power it with wind, solar, hydro, biomass, or nuclear we can make crucial progress. The good news is scientists and entrepreneurs are moving forward in these areas.

The production of steel and concrete is currently fossil fuel dependent. The solutions to these industries’ energy source have not been solved but scientists are working on ways to shrink their fossil fuel footprint or find substitutes.

About 25% of our fossil fuel emissions comes from AFOLA, (Agriculture, Forestry, and other land use). Here too, science is making progress. Agronomists are looking at cover crops like clover or legumes to protect and enrich the soil as well as biochar, low till or no till agriculture, the use of mulching, liming acidic soils, and crop rotation.

Second, we will have to remove carbon from the air. Removal can come from natural means like forestation and soil conservation as mentioned previously.

Additionally, the air can be scrubbed of CO2 by deploying artificial carbon capture technologies. These technologies are being developed.

To mature and accelerate these essential technologies will require investment by the Federal Government. The Biden Administration has pledged to spend 10 trillion over the next 10 years, while it is optimistically projected other private and public sources will invest 5 trillion.

Additionally, the government must incentivize the marketplace to buy and deploy the new technologies. This is sometimes called, “The Great Transition”. This can be done via carbon pollution fees, carbon trading, government mandates, and government purchases.

It is a race against time with two goal lines.  If we can transition to zero emissions by 2050 there is a good chance we can keep temperature rise to 1.5 C above preindustrial temperatures. This gives humanity a high level of safety and is the preferred goal-line to meet.

If we cannot transition by 2050 but slide the goal-line to 2086 we may be able to keep the rise to 2C. This puts us at a lower level of safety, but the consequences may be tolerable.

Landing at zero emission somewhere between 2050 and 2086 is vital to avoid “tipping points”. If we heat too far, we start knocking over tipping points and the climate will become unmanageable.

Here are two quotes by scientist Field: “If we are going to stop climate change, we need to bring the releases of carbon dioxide down to zero very, very rapidly.”

“My personal forecast is that when I look at the balance between expenditures, avoided damages and increased growth, it’s well worth the expenditures.”

If we can successfully bring our carbon emission to zero somewhere between 2050 and 2086 we will go a long way towards saving our kids’ future. But, while we must skillfully deploy our resources to mitigate, we will still warm while we strive to meet our zero-emission goal.

Dr. Katharine Mach, associate professor at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science spoke about the need to anticipate and react to the world as it warms, and extreme weather becomes more common. We need to adapt. Here is how she describes adaptation: “..adaptation is a term used to describe the process of becoming more resilient, more prepared in the face of a change in climate.”

What do we need to adapt to? If you live along the USA’s southeast coast you have a myriad of challenges. Hurricanes, tornadoes, higher heat, higher humidity, sea level rise, and flooding. And, as Texans recently experienced, nasty cold snaps.

Out west it is drought, heat waves, forest fires, and flooding.

Here it is most likely going to be heavy downpours, high winds, a few heat waves, and my big worry, ice storms.

Embedded within all these growing threats is the risk we will lose electricity as power lines collapse. We may also lose road connections due to washouts.  

While the Federal Government is moving on infrastructure it will not meet our needs now. This is where county and community planning and even individual preparation is essential. How are we going to keep the lights on today?

There is a new professional society the American Society for Adaptation Professionals, ASAP, out of Ypsilanti, MI.  If we do not want to end up like Texas, we may want to start asking ourselves what we need to do to meet the unavoidable floods, winds, and power outages we know are coming. Since many of the threats are nationwide, ASAP is a means communities can develop and share best practices.

And, as a personal note, we need to elect leaders with vision.

·       The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has devoted resources to advance attribution science and, additionally, how to communicate the role humans play in global warming and our changing weather.