When Predictions Become Reality

If you want to witness climate change through the lens of a professional photographer, you are invited to the Golden Dragon Restaurant (http:www.ironwoodgoldendragon.com), at 6PM on Tuesday  April 23^rd. The Ironwood Carnegie Library, Northwind Food Co-op, and Citizens Climate Lobby will host the documentary “The Human Element.”

If you are unable to attend, I challenge you to spend some time on the NASA website. NASA is one of the most respected organizations in the United States. Much of what follows is directly based on  https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence

Science follows rational progression. First observations are made, a hypothesis is formulated, data is gathered, data is analyzed, and further predictions are made. If the predictions come true, and further data verifies these predictions, then conclusions are made based on this rational process.  In the case of climate change, all predictions have happened. The data continuously supports the hypothesis that increasing carbon dioxide means a warmer climate disrupted earth.

Here are some facts from NASA which have broad scientific support world-wide:

1)     The earth is getting warmer rapidly. Using 1951 to 1980 as an average, we have had 18 of the 19 warmest years since 2011 with 2016 being the warmest on record at 1 degree C or 1.8-degree F above the average. 2018 was .8 degree C above average. This is a global warming average. Local climate change varies widely each year, each season, and in each region. In comparison to Alaska and Canada, for instance, we have warmed slowly.

2)     Oceans are gigantic heat sinks that absorb 90+% of the excess trapped heat of greenhouse gasses. Since 1969 they have warmed .4 degrees C.  The Bering Sea has an area of massive warming water scientists refer to as the blob. It is adversely disrupting marine sea life beyond anything predicted or even dreamed of.

3)     The Arctic Ocean is losing, on average, 12.8% of its ice coverage per decade. The mass loss, vs this coverage loss, is even greater. Already two thirds of the arctic sea ice is gone.

4)     The Ice Caps of Greenland and Antarctica are melting. Greenland loses 286 billion tons of ice per year. It was assumed the Antarctic Ice Cap would remain stable or even gain mass because of increased snow precipitation similar to our lake effect. Instead, it is now losing 127 billion tons of ice per year. Melting is accelerating and this phenomenon is the focus of climate scientists.

5)     Nearly all glaciers are melting worldwide. Since 1850, our Glacier National Park has lost 124 of its 150 glaciers. Only 26 remain.

6)     The oceans are rising.  Both physical and satellite data tell us they are currently rising at 3mm per year. There is no debate they are rising or will continue to rise. The speed they will rise is under debate. Cities with massive populations are located on the shores of our oceans. The global implications for infrastructure loss and human migration are dire. Oceans rise because of heat expansion, melting glaciers and the melting ice caps.

7)     Extreme weather events are increasing. High temperature records are being set at a pace twice as high as low records. Intense rain and flooding events are increasing in frequency and magnitude. Hurricanes are stronger and wetter. The forest fire season is getting longer and more volatile. 

These unpleasant phenomena are happening world-wide.

If you examine climate history backwards via ice cores, sea sediment layers, peat bog layers, coral reefs, cave stalactites, and temperature bore holes we know climate change is caused by, primarily, carbon dioxide fluctuations. We know where today’s excess comes from. It is carbon dioxide and the many pollutants coming from burnt coal, oil and gas.

Some disingenuous people will tell you scientists advocate for mankind to go “cold turkey” and turn off the gas-pumps. No scientist or activist promotes the idea of society going to zero emissions immediately. If we could, admittedly, it would be the rational thing to do. Obviously, it cannot be done over-night. It will take time, money, patience and sacrifice. This is a given. The next generation will act because they must. We adults have the luxury of choosing to act or to ignore the science without major consequence. Thus, we will be heralded for our fore-sight and selflessness; or we will be condemned for our lack of vision and selfishness.  

Scare-mongering is used by people unable to gather the courage to accept essential change. Survivors adapt to change. Climate change was predicted and is now a well-documented reality. The implications for us, if we do not stand up to the challenges to adapt and mitigate, are frightening. The longer we procrastinate, the more frightening the consequences become.

If we choose to mobilize our minds and energies now, we will start the process posterity will respect. The consensus of the scientific community is solid. Admittedly, there are 2 to 3 percent of the active contributing climate scientists who disagree. I have looked long and hard at the denier points of view. It is my opinion, given that all predictions have manifested themselves world-wide, we would be fools to let this tiny group prevent us from acting.

The ancients believed earth processes were driven by four elements: water, air, earth and fire. They did not have the science to tell them there is one more essential element. Today we know the critical element as the Human Element.   

I hope to see you on the 23^rd at the Golden Dragon. If not, you can find the details at the NASA website: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence

Warm regards, Cool planet,

Greyson Morrow