Will we Vote the Copper Mine out of town…..again?


During the 2016 primary debates I listened once to Donald Trump. After the debate I said to my friend, “He will be the Republican candidate and he will be the next president.” 

“How can you say that?” they asked.

“Because”, I said, “He appeals to our primitive tribal instincts.” 

The danger of this, I predicted, is he will deepen our divisive tribalism, enabling racists. Additionally, he will capitalize on the science illiteracy of our citizens to halt the efforts combating climate change. 

A related casualty of this, I feared, would be the proposed copper mine in Wakefield.
Unfortunately, all my fears have come true. 

The President has fueled racial disharmony. This is on full display 24/7.

Ignoring the science community, Mr. Trump pulled us out of the Paris Climate Accord. By doing this he turned his back on 194 other countries and all future Americans. 

And the mine is gone or, hopefully, simply waiting for the price of copper to rise.

Let me explain why electing Mr. Trump stalled opening new copper mines.

Except for a little hydro-electric and nuclear power we get most of our electricity from heavily polluting coal. 

The logical replacement of coal power plants is wind turbines and solar panels. Both forms of clean power rely on copper to produce electricity. The amount of copper used by one form of energy production versus another is called “copper usage intensity”. Copper usage intensity in solar and wind generation is 4 to 6 times that of coal or nuclear. 

Copper is an important conductor in wind power generation. Wind farms can contain several hundred-thousand feet of copper weighing between 4 million to 15 million pounds, mostly in wiring, cable, tubing, generators, and step-up transformers. *
 
The price, thus the potential profitability of a mine, is largely governed by supply and demand. If we want the mine to open, we need customers who want to buy the copper. Those customers come from manufacturers who produce “green energy”, wind and solar. 

Additionally, it would be advantageous to ramp up production before other mines do. This would maximize the price and give the mining company a handsome early profit. The higher price is not guaranteed to last because as the price rises existing copper mines will increase production. Also, other new mines will open. The proposed massive Polymet mine in northern Minnesota is one example of a mine attempting to open in anticipation of high copper demand. Polymet’s advertisements accurately focus on the fact copper is required to power the new sustainable energy future. It would be advantageous for our proposed mine to open well ahead of PolyM=met.
Another wild card is undersea mining. There is an incredible amount of interest in this novel and unorthodox way of mining. Their undersea objective is the extraction of rare earth metals and copper.  Again, it would be advantageous to open ahead of any technological breakthroughs surfacing in the undersea mining business.
In 2016 the proposed mine for Gogebic County seemed on track to open. The predicted presidential winner, Hillary Clinton, had posted plans to incentivize the copper intensive energy businesses of solar panels and wind turbines.

Donald Trump had plans to subsidize a failing, and heavily polluting energy source, coal. 

In the election, by choosing Mr. Trump, we chose coal, oil, and gas over clean energy. The vote doomed the mine.

Not long after President Trump pulled us out of the Paris Climate Accord the mining office in Wakefield closed indefinitely. 

We cannot expect any mining company to return if we elect politicians who subsidize fossil fuels. If we do, we kill the companies making wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. We lose the customers we need to buy U.P. copper.

It makes no difference how many, “I support U.P. mining” signs we put in our yards. 

The bean counters in the mining accountant’s office must demonstrate the mine will make a profit. They calculate the anticipated selling price of copper vs the cost to dig it out of the ground and process it. The column noting the number of pro mining vs anti-mining signs does not exist on their spreadsheets. 

The only thing that will push the price of copper ore high enough is a rapid and deliberate transition to modern clean energy. 

The power switch to move to clean energy is in the voting booth. In 2016 we selected the “off” switch. This fall lets choose the “ON” switch lighting the path to a bright clean future. Right now, only Democratic politicians are moving us forward. Let us hope Republican politicians join and we can make this a team effort to protect our children’s future and create mining jobs for Gogebic County.  Not only is our kid’s climate future at stake, but their economic future is too. A new copper mine in Gogebic County would go a long way to further both goals. 

Note: *A more lengthy explanation of the Copper electrical power relationship comes from Wikipedia. Wikipedia also gives a description of supply/demand curves.
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Here is my short explanation of supply vs demand. It is the same one I was given at the USAF Academy. The graph is the one economic geeks use to explain how price is set.




Attribution: Wikipedia Commons

D is demand: S is supply: P is price; and Q is quantity sold.

Explanatory note: D1 represents demand to start with. D2 represents increased demand (most likely solar panel and wind turbine customers) who need, in this case, copper). 

You can see the price rises from P1 to P2 as demand increases.

If the supply of copper increases, the S curve moves to the right and the price decreases. (Not shown) 

Here is basically what the supply/demand curves says: If you are in business and you have a product others do not  produce (low supply) and there are a lot of people who want to buy your product (high demand) you are going to get rich.

If you are in business and you and others make a lot of the product (high supply) and there are only a few people who want to buy it (low demand) you will not get much of a price. In fact, you will most likely go bankrupt.

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