Revolution?

As you might expect, when you discuss controversial subjects you must expect responses you cannot anticipate. Recently, a friend asked me if I was promoting revolution. I looked back at our train of e-mails and I could see no indication of promoting a revolution. Except, a revolution in how we think.  The comment, I found, beneficial.  It made me reflect on why I am a climate activist and why climate activists are so committed.

The short answer is we highly value democracy and stable government. Here is the bottom line. If climate change is exacerbated by our inaction, by sticking to our fossil fuel habits, the climate will destabilize and there will be food shortages. Rapid climate change, like the world is experiencing to the warm side, results in crop failures. If people cannot feed their families, they are ripe for revolution.

Interestingly, the recent e-mail exchange I just referenced took place as I was studying a “Great Courses” set of lectures by University of Washington’s Professor Michael E. Wysession. He delivers 48 lectures in a series called, “How the Earth Works”. When you get to lesson 37 it gets really interesting, especially for someone who wishes to understand climate and what happens when it gets colder or warmer. While I have delved deep into climate, Professor Wysession goes one deeper. 

From previous studies, and Professor Wysession’s lecture, we know the last 10,000 years of the planet’s weather history is the most stable scientists can identify. That is not to say there have not been considerable floods or droughts but, in general, the relative stability of the last 10,000 years has allowed us to develop agriculture which makes civilization on a large scale possible.

Sometimes the climate in the last 10,000 years has shifted getting colder. Most of the shifts have been regional but a few have been global. Volcanoes, in the last 10,000 years, are not vehicles of global warming. Explosive eruptions send up ash that blocks the sun cooling the planet substantially. Here are some examples:

About 3,000 years ago the Icelandic Hekla Volcano erupted. Chinese records tell us ash rained down for 10 days. It is estimated the human death toll in Scotland and Northern Europe reached 90% as a result of crop failures and pestilence.

In 209BC the Icelandic volcanoes blew again. China was unable to feed itself and half their population was lost.

In 536AD Mount Rabaul in New Guinea blasted ash up so thick the Eastern Roman Empire, (Byzantium Empire) lost 80% of its citizens as a result of crop failures, famine, and pestilence.

In 1783AD both the old culprit, Hekla, and the Japanese volcano Asama blew. In 1789 Europe documented the coldest yearly records in 100 years. Have you heard the quote attributed to the Queen of France, “Let them eat cake!”. Do you know why this statement was so infuriating to the Parisians? There was no bread. After the mob stormed the Bastille, they headed to the clergy’s estate, St. Lazare. They were not visiting to take communion. They seized 42 wagons of grain.  

Whatever you have read about the underlying factors of the French Revolution; Marie Antoinette may have remained Queen of France had the crops not failed due to rapid climate change. As it was, her reign was shortened as well as her stature. 

But her shortening was not an isolated occurrence. Her husband was guillotined too. In total a dozen European governments failed during this time of food shortages.

What we are experiencing now is rapid world-wide warming. The results of this warming are recorded by scientists, with over 23,000 lines of evidence. More and deeper droughts are one line of evidence I find most frightening. 

Droughts are projected to increase. Today, we can depend on world-wide transportation networks to feed us. The interconnected world economy moves commodities to the highest bidder. We experience price rises as supplies get short. Most of us can absorb these costs but what if you cannot? In 2010 the giant wheat fields of Russia and the Ukraine came up short because of drought. Putin closed the Russian borders to grain exports. 

Simultaneously, the Canadian wheat producing provinces experienced flooding which further constricted the world’s flour supplies. Prices rose to the point the poor in many Arab Countries could no longer feed themselves. A half a dozen Arab governments failed in a series of revolutions we call Arab Spring.  Syria and Yemen are still a mess.

The bottom line is we currently live in history’s finest global climate sweet spot. The tragedy of the current pandemic has us anxious, but modern science, if we respect it and fund its solutions we will solve this pandemic and any future pandemic.

The largest general science organization on earth, The American Association for the Advancement of Science, recently sent out an alert to its membership. It warned us not to lose sight.  While COVID-19 is tragic, climate change is the real threat.

The black cloud of the current pandemic will dissipate. If we learn from the storm of this experience, there may be a rainbow awaiting our kids. If we can work together, world-wide, to address this pandemic we will be able to do the same with climate change.  Then, scientists will not only be able to head off pandemics, but with their guidance, we will solve the climate crisis too. 

You see, climate scientist’s bottom line is to keep us in the climate sweet spot. A beneficial climate is the best solution to head off revolution.